EUV Supply Risk
Supply chainHold €82m of cheap spares, no optics, and add €59m of equity value.
Every EUV scanner depends on three single-source modules. I simulate 20,000 versions of 2027 to 2030 and price each buffer policy through my ASML DCF.
- Simulated futures
- 20,000
- Recommended buffer
- +€59m
- On-time delivery
- 57% to 63%
ASML EUV · 2027 to 2030
20,000 paths
Buffer policy
Equity value vs no buffer
+€59m
95% CI +€55m to +€62m
2 NXE light sources, 5 NXE + 1 EXE drive lasers, no optics.
- Stock held
- €82m
- On-time delivery
- 63%
Recommended buffer, as failures cluster more
- +€9m
- Independent
- +€59m
- Central case
- +€131m
- Doubled
Supplier reliability is not public, so those inputs are labelled illustrative priors with stated ranges. Simulated outcomes, not predictions.
- Python
- SciPy
- TypeScript
- React
- Web Worker
How it was built
Problem
Projection optics from Zeiss, light sources from Cymer and drive lasers from Trumpf each come from one supplier. How much stock of each is worth holding?
Data
The Base case of my ASML DCF plus sourced inputs. Supplier reliability is not public, so those inputs are labelled illustrative priors with stated ranges.
Method
48 months per path: industry stress, orders, outages, yields, assembly, late orders and cancellations, with shipments feeding the DCF. Common random numbers keep policy comparisons paired; buffers are optimised on one seed and evaluated on another. 22 tests, and the deterministic case reproduces the DCF price.
Result
Two spare sets of everything destroys €193m, because a late machine is mostly a delayed sale. Supply-chain risk costs about €2.44 a share, so it cannot explain the gap between my €935 and the €1,611 price. The decision depends most on laser and light-source outage rates and on how strongly failures cluster.



